A
lot of people love SpaceX for the dream of Mars. I’m not big on the “future of humanity is on
Mars” thing, but I love SpaceX because my dreams of lunar colonies and asteroid
mining will only remain dreams if we can’t get things off Earth. And SpaceX is a less-expensive way to get
things off Earth. However, I do have a
bit of a problem with SpaceX in that they seem to bite off more than they can
chew. For a while it was like, “I don’t
care about your grand plans for Mars, I’m waiting for you to do this thing that
you said you would do three years ago.” To that end, about a year ago I came up
with a list of the things I was waiting for SpaceX to do. There were four items, but as of today there are
now only two.
Number
Four, reuse a rocket
When
the Falcon 9 first stage landed at Cape Canaveral on December 22, 2015,
becoming the first rocket to put a payload into orbit and then land, I like
most people was overjoyed at the engineering marvel. However, once the dust settled I was like,
“Okay, when are you going to relaunch it?” Because while landing a rocket is a
fantastic feat, the real test would be if you could reuse it. I mean, a reusable rocket is one that you can
launch and land several times, not one you launch, land, then throw in the
scrap heap. So when a different landed
booster took off for the second time on March 30, 2017, I was thrilled. Having a rocket you can launch, land, refuel,
and relaunch in days – maybe even hours – will truly open up space for …
everything. And that was a beautiful
first step towards that.
Number
Three, launch twelve times in a year
This
may sound like an odd goal to have, but a few years ago I read somewhere that
there were sixty satellites waiting to be launched by SpaceX over the next five
years. That’s great, but in 2013 they
only had three launches, and in 2014 they had six. To launch sixty satellites in five years, you
need to average one a month, but if you’re only doing one every two or three
months, the math doesn’t work out. They
seemed on track to meet this goal in 2015, but then they had a launch failure
on June 28, which set them back. So in
2015 they again only had six successful launches. In 2016 they had eight successful launches in
eight months, but then a rocket blew up on the pad on September 1, setting them
back again. But today, with the
successful launch of FORMOSAT-5, SpaceX has launched twelve times this
year. And they still have four months to
go.
As I
said, this is a little odd to have as a goal, but for my dreams of making
humanity a spacefaring civilization, we need not overly expensive, reliable, and
frequent launches to get us out into space.
SpaceX has done a lot with those first two, and it’s fantastic to see
them make progress with the last.
Number
Two, fly the Falcon Heavy
There
are those who think the only way to open up space is to have super big
rockets. I don’t fall into that
group. My thoughts have been that if you
had two rockets, let’s call them A and B where B can lift three times as much
as A, I’d rather split a payload into thirds and launch them on three As and
have them dock in orbit. In large part
because if there’s an accident, then you only lose a third of the payload
instead of all of it. Also, bigger
rockets tend to be more expensive, take longer to design and test, and don’t
fly as often. If we were going to put up
some space station that would take one SLS or ten Falcon 9s, I’d go with the
Falcon 9s because you could probably fit an additional ten Falcon 9s into the
launch manifest in the time before the SLS finally flies. It’s the philosophy of “Let’s do what we can
now with what we have, instead of waiting ten years to maybe do something
bigger.”
Having
said all of that, I do like the Falcon Heavy because it seemed like a pretty
simple – in rocket science terms – idea.
As such, instead of waiting decades for a new big rocket, we’d only have
to wait a couple of years. And then a
couple more. And a couple more. Given what I know now, I might not have been
that big of fan of the Falcon Heavy when I first heard of it. But it’s finally just a few months from
flying. Hopefully. And if it’s actually successful, it will be a
wonderful addition to the rocket family.
And while people will still clamor for something bigger, I’ll be “Let’s
do what we can now with what we have, instead of waiting ten years to maybe do
something bigger.” As far as I’m concerned, the Falcon Heavy is big enough to
start working towards new space stations and lunar bases.
Number
One, fly humans
While
launching communication satellites and science probes are great, the only way
to colonize space is to send people.
While SpaceX doesn’t have the only commercial crew launcher in
development, it does seem like it’s the furthest ahead. It also may be the most open to stuff beyond
the International Space Station. Taking
crews to the ISS is important, but I think the whole point is to open up new
places to take people. SpaceX has
already announced a joyride around the moon, and with the Falcon Heavy they can
launch modules for commercial laboratories and hotels and then launch crews and
guests to them.
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