Broadly
speaking, I can see four … philosophies for how we humans will explore
Mars. The first I’m not sure how someone
could support it, but I’m sure someone out there does. The other three have their supporters, some
rather vocal, but all have major issues.
Option
1: Flags and footprints
“Flags
and footprints” is often used to describe the Apollo missions to the moon.
We landed men on the moon, planted a flag, took photos, did a bit of
science, and came back. We went to show
that we could do it, but without the intention to build on what we did. It’s possible some national space program or
private enterprise could spend the billions of dollars to land some people on
Mars to get in the history books and have bragging rights. But will they have the ability to build on
that?
The
biggest issue with the flags and footprints approach on Mars is that it would set
a precedent in the public’s mind. We
spend billions of dollars to go to the moon, and then we stopped going. If we spend billions of dollars to go to Mars
and then stop going after a couple missions – especially if those billions are
tax dollars – then it would just lend credence to those who think space is all
just a waste of money.
Option
2: Sustained scientific study
This
approach is where every 26 months – when Earth and Mars are in the right spots
in their orbits – we send a team of scientist astronauts to a lab on Mars to
conduct various experiments. Think of it
as the International Space Station (ISS), but on Mars.
There
are a couple of problems with this option.
First, it’s more likely a national project, much the same way that Antarctic
bases and the ISS are national projects.
The problem with this is that it would be expensive to carry out such a
program for decades. So every time there
was a political change, or some need to cut some part of the budget to save
some other sacred cow, it’s likely such a project would be unceremoniously canceled.
A second
big problem is that there are space supporters who don’t like the ISS. Yes, the argument could be made that things
should have been done differently and we could have had a better station that
would let us do more. I’m not talking
about that. I’m talking about the people
who think this research lab in space is … boring. These are the people who think that every
mission in space should be an inspiration to generations to come. So a research lab on Mars won’t cut it.
Option
3: Slow colonization
Slow
colonization is an outreach of sustained scientific study. Once we figure out how to support ten people
living on Mars, we have ten people living on Mars. There would still be scientists cycling
though, but now there would be a permanent staff to help them with research as
well as building up the infrastructure and resources so that twenty people
would be able to live on Mars.
Slow
colonization would be a little more expensive than sustained scientific study,
but it would have a more public friendly goal, and thus would be harder to
cancel. It would also be the logical
approach of actively figuring out how to live on Mars before sending a bunch of
colonists. Thus, it will probably be the
least likely option to happen. The main
reason being that some of the loudest Pro-Mars voices are talking about
hundreds of people living on Mars “in our lifetimes.” Hundreds, not tens. For the public that gets a new phone every
six months, the idea that it could take decades to build up basic comforts is
unacceptable. But that’s how things will
be. A year after the first person walks
on Mars you won’t be able to book a Martian holiday where you’ll sit around a
pool sipping Mai Tais. When the reality
of how slow colonizing Mars will be sets in, many of the public will feel
cheated and will lose interest.
Option
4: Fast colonization
The
only way to live up to the hype of Mars will be fast colonization. This is where we start sending dozens, or
hundreds of people to Mars at a time.
The
basic problem with this is that it is based on the hope that the steep learning
curve of figuring out how to live on an alien planet doesn’t kill most of the colonists. Figuring out the learning curve was the point
of the slow colonization. But to meet
public expectations, such sensible caution may have to be thrown away.
The
other big problem with fast colonization is that it will be rather expensive. Even with cheap rockets flinging your stuff
to Mars, you’re still going to have to fling a lot of stuff. Again, part of the idea behind slow
colonization is to slowly figure out and build up the capabilities of sustained
living on Mars. So you’ll either have to
over prepare and thus fling a lot of stuff to Mars, or under prepare and maybe
kill off some colonists.
#
So
which way will humans explore Mars? Only
time will tell. Unfortunately, it’s
likely few of us will live to see which way it goes.
I'm gong with #2.
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