The Fall of SpaceX?

I’ve been a big supporter of space for as long as I can remember.  In 2009 I was thrilled when SpaceX became the first private company to put a satellite into orbit with a private rocket.  It seemed like we were on the verge of the real Space Age.  But in the last few years, it just seems like we’ve lost our way. 

After some thought, I figured out part of the problem.  If you went back twenty years to 2004 and found the 28-year-old me and told him, “There’s this company, SpaceX, I don’t know if you’ve heard anything of them yet, but in a few years they’ll build a small rocket that will be the first private rocket to put a satellite into orbit.  They’ll build a bigger rocket, which by 2024 will be a workhorse, launching over 100 times in 2024 alone.  Part of the reason for the high launch cadence is the first stage is reusable, as in it lands and can be reflown at least twenty some times.  And they have a capsule capable of putting humans into orbit, either as a taxi for NASA astronauts, or just private astronauts.  From all of that, what do you think they’re doing in 2024?”

2004 me would think for a bit, and then would probably answer, “Space stations.  Maybe just two or three module ones.  Some would be hotels, while others would be labs, either general or dedicated to biological research or materials testing.  And there might even be … garages that would send out robotic or crewed craft to bring back damaged satellites for repair.  I mean, that’s what I’d be doing.  What’s this SpaceX doing?”

“They’ve launched thousands upon thousands of satellites to give internet service to people.”

2004 me.  “That’s … cool, I guess.  Do they have any plans?”

“Oh, they’re working on an even larger rocket that will not only have a reuseable first stage, but a reuseable second stage.”

2004 me.  “Oh, will they use that to launch space stations, sort of a Skylab thing?”

“No, they’re mainly focused on starting a Mars Colony.”

2004 me, slightly confused.  “But, if you had a space station, you could test the life support systems needed for the months long voyage to Mars.  Not to mention, it would be a good idea to have plenty of private astronauts with some space experience to be the command crew on a colony ship.  Especially to do spacewalks in case something needs repaired.”

“No, I think the plan is to just fling them to Mars and hope for the best.”

2004 me, really confused.  “That’s … all they’re doing?”

“Well, they’re contracted with NASA for a lunar lander version to land crew on the moon, but who knows if anything will come of it.  Like, in the original timeline by 2024 they should have had an uncrewed test flight, which would involve putting the lander in orbit, and then launching like fifteen refueling missions to refuel it to fly to the moon.  But so far, they’ve had six test flights, and while they have recovered one first stage, none of the second stages – that are to be rapidly reuseable – have survived reentry in any shape to be reused.  But the owner recently said they’d fly a couple cargo missions to Mars in 2026, although you’d think such missions would also have rovers but I’ve not heard anything about them, even though they’d take a few years to build.”

2004 me.  “What?”

I think this is why 2024 me is starting to worry that SpaceX will … crash and burn.  A few years ago, I wrote a post about how if you were serious about building a Mars Colony, you’d probably want some orbiters to map out certain resources or look for hazards to plan where to put this colony, or to put a bunch of weather, or communications satellites around Mars, or maybe do some reentry tests to get some information before going all out.  But that would require money, and knowledge of building satellites, and rockets powerful enough to send them to Mars.  I mean, it’s not like Elon Musk and SpaceX have had all these things for years.

I fully support the scientific exploration of Mars, but I maintain that the challenges of a Mars Colony far exceed the benefits.  We can mine metals from the asteroids and build rotating colonies that we can fill with life from Earth without worrying about destroying any alien life on Mars.  We could even put rockets on these stations and send them outside the solar system.  If we go to Mars, we get a planet.  If we go to the asteroids, we get the galaxy.

It seems like SpaceX is passing up on what 2004 me would consider as the “next logical steps” to making humanity a spacefaring civilization, for an all or nothing Mars Colony that, almost certainly, will not happen as quickly or glamorously as Musk and his cheerleaders say it will.  It almost reminds me of some observations I heard about a year ago about this car company.  A decade ago, Tesla was The Electric Car Company.  But over the last decade or so, they haven’t done much.  Instead of expanding their market with more affordable cars, they seem to be just doing crazier and crazier publicity stunts.  And while they’re doing that, other car companies have started making their own electric cars, maybe not as exciting as Teslas, but actually available to the average car buyer.  A decade ago, Tesla was King, but no more.  Right now, SpaceX is King.  But by focusing on some grand vision, will their competitors be able to move into the “next logical steps?” A decade from now, will other rocket companies be taking us to the moon, while SpaceX is left doing stunts to stay in the news?

Small acts of resistance

As a white, fourthish generation, heterosexual cismale, I know that I’m not at the top of the list of people the magats will go after.  But I do live in a very red part of the state.  As an introvert who isn’t a fan of confrontation, I do my best to keep my thoughts, especially political ones, to myself.  I have coworkers and family who voted for that treasonous shit weasel who, since I never say anything, probably assume I did as well.  Some will say I should cut those people out of my life, but I’m not that strong.

Anyway, I was physically ill the day after the election and had basically given up.  The coming shitocalypse will probably be so great that nothing I did could stop it.  I felt like that for a day or so, but as the disgust faded, it was replaced with a cold fury.  I will not let the fucking fascists win.  While that would make for a nice bumper sticker – that I wouldn’t feel safe enough to put on my car – it didn’t change the fact I’m still an introvert who doesn’t deal well with people.  What could I do? 

My plan is to write stories.  A few months ago, I had decided that I would put aside other writing stuff and spend 2025 finishing a fantasy book that I’ve been working on, off and on, for a decade or so.  That was the plan.  The plan now, is to hopefully spend half the time on that, and the other half on other short stories.  These short stories would be one part showing a better world where people have the basic freedom to be different, and one part being good for morale for those of us fighting for such a world.  I mean, even in the darkest days of WWII, I’m sure there was some French Resistance member cracking jokes to make the other members laugh.

Now, in the grand scheme of things, an unknown writer writing stories few people will ever read doesn’t seem like much.  And I realized that most of us fighting on the side of light feel like we can never do enough.  Our small acts of resistance won’t save the world.  But we have to remember we are not alone.  There are millions of real patriots out there who truly want to make America better, and every small act of resistance, from helping someone in need to just living a good life, it all builds and adds up. 

So, what small acts of resistance are you doing?

What might happen in the next four years

Since we are apparently living in the dumbest timeline, I wondered what we might see happen in the next four years.  So here are some things I hope won’t happen.

First off, a couple weeks before the election I read somewhere someone predicted that shortly after Trump’s Inauguration, Vance would 25th Amendment him because he clearly has dementia.  But if we accept that they’re vile assholes who would do anything for power, I’d say it’s more likely Trump will be shot by an “immigrant” as an excuse to really go after them.  If he survives, they could spin it as the injuries are so great that he has to resign.  And then a week later there will be pictures of him golfing.

I expect Palestine will cease to exist, with Gaza and the West Bank being annexed by Israel.  This will likely start a big Mideast war, that the US will almost certainly trip into.  And with the US preoccupied there, it’s likely China will invade Taiwan, and North Korea will attack South Korea.  If we send aid to either is probably a coin flip.

Ukraine will end up having to let a big chunk of their territory be taken by Russia to end the war.  But if the US pulls out of NATO, there is a chance that there will be a new Common European Defense Organization, or something as the EU becomes the new leader of the Free World.

One not bad thing that might happen, is Puerto Rico might just declare independence.  If they did it right now, there might be issues, but when the economy tanks, and we end up in two or three wars, they could leave without many noticing. 

So those were my immediate thoughts.  I wish I could say none of them will happen, but ….

Good signs

I live in a rather red area of Pennsylvania.  I also watch a bunch of stuff on YouTube.  So I’ve seen a lot of political ads these last few months.  Now I didn’t keep track of what ads I saw, but it seems to me that even a couple of weeks ago, for every three Democrat ads I saw, there were four Republican ads.  But now it does seem that for every three Republican ads, there are four Democrat ones.  Did the Republicans run out of money, or have they realized they’re not winning Pennsylvania so they’re putting their money elsewhere, or am I completely wrong about all of this?  Who knows.  One thing that is interesting, is how most of the Republican ads are of the doom and gloom and “They support trans people,” kind, whereas the Democrat ones are the “Here’s what we’re going to do for America,” as well as, “Election Day is November fifth.  Please vote,” kind.

Moving away from ads, I’ve seen a couple houses with Republican yard signs, but not Trump signs.  So there are some people that are Republicans, but not Trump-Republicans, which is a low bar, but too few clear it.

On the roads I take to work, I see a dozen or so Trump signs.  But last week, as I was driving along, I saw something and went, “Is that a Harris sign?” Well, it was, but it had been vandalized into a slightly rude sign.  I was still a few minutes from work, and I wondered if that person had put up a Harris sign only for someone to vandalize it, or if they had stolen a sign to vandalize it and put it up as a “joke.” Not knowing who lived there, it’s hard to say.  But it’s unlikely they drove for hours to steal a sign, so there was probably someone in the area who put up a Harris sign.  And then, as I pulled in to work, I saw a Harris bumper sticker, which was the first actual Harris sign I’ve seen.  Again, I live in a very red part of the state, and I pretty much only go to and from work.

But, the other day I had to run an errand which took me on a road I hadn’t been on for over a month.  On that road I remembered seeing a dozen or so Trump signs.  They’re still there, but this time, I saw two houses with actual, unvandalized Harris signs.  There are brave blue dots in the sea of red.