The Fall of SpaceX?

I’ve been a big supporter of space for as long as I can remember.  In 2009 I was thrilled when SpaceX became the first private company to put a satellite into orbit with a private rocket.  It seemed like we were on the verge of the real Space Age.  But in the last few years, it just seems like we’ve lost our way. 

After some thought, I figured out part of the problem.  If you went back twenty years to 2004 and found the 28-year-old me and told him, “There’s this company, SpaceX, I don’t know if you’ve heard anything of them yet, but in a few years they’ll build a small rocket that will be the first private rocket to put a satellite into orbit.  They’ll build a bigger rocket, which by 2024 will be a workhorse, launching over 100 times in 2024 alone.  Part of the reason for the high launch cadence is the first stage is reusable, as in it lands and can be reflown at least twenty some times.  And they have a capsule capable of putting humans into orbit, either as a taxi for NASA astronauts, or just private astronauts.  From all of that, what do you think they’re doing in 2024?”

2004 me would think for a bit, and then would probably answer, “Space stations.  Maybe just two or three module ones.  Some would be hotels, while others would be labs, either general or dedicated to biological research or materials testing.  And there might even be … garages that would send out robotic or crewed craft to bring back damaged satellites for repair.  I mean, that’s what I’d be doing.  What’s this SpaceX doing?”

“They’ve launched thousands upon thousands of satellites to give internet service to people.”

2004 me.  “That’s … cool, I guess.  Do they have any plans?”

“Oh, they’re working on an even larger rocket that will not only have a reuseable first stage, but a reuseable second stage.”

2004 me.  “Oh, will they use that to launch space stations, sort of a Skylab thing?”

“No, they’re mainly focused on starting a Mars Colony.”

2004 me, slightly confused.  “But, if you had a space station, you could test the life support systems needed for the months long voyage to Mars.  Not to mention, it would be a good idea to have plenty of private astronauts with some space experience to be the command crew on a colony ship.  Especially to do spacewalks in case something needs repaired.”

“No, I think the plan is to just fling them to Mars and hope for the best.”

2004 me, really confused.  “That’s … all they’re doing?”

“Well, they’re contracted with NASA for a lunar lander version to land crew on the moon, but who knows if anything will come of it.  Like, in the original timeline by 2024 they should have had an uncrewed test flight, which would involve putting the lander in orbit, and then launching like fifteen refueling missions to refuel it to fly to the moon.  But so far, they’ve had six test flights, and while they have recovered one first stage, none of the second stages – that are to be rapidly reuseable – have survived reentry in any shape to be reused.  But the owner recently said they’d fly a couple cargo missions to Mars in 2026, although you’d think such missions would also have rovers but I’ve not heard anything about them, even though they’d take a few years to build.”

2004 me.  “What?”

I think this is why 2024 me is starting to worry that SpaceX will … crash and burn.  A few years ago, I wrote a post about how if you were serious about building a Mars Colony, you’d probably want some orbiters to map out certain resources or look for hazards to plan where to put this colony, or to put a bunch of weather, or communications satellites around Mars, or maybe do some reentry tests to get some information before going all out.  But that would require money, and knowledge of building satellites, and rockets powerful enough to send them to Mars.  I mean, it’s not like Elon Musk and SpaceX have had all these things for years.

I fully support the scientific exploration of Mars, but I maintain that the challenges of a Mars Colony far exceed the benefits.  We can mine metals from the asteroids and build rotating colonies that we can fill with life from Earth without worrying about destroying any alien life on Mars.  We could even put rockets on these stations and send them outside the solar system.  If we go to Mars, we get a planet.  If we go to the asteroids, we get the galaxy.

It seems like SpaceX is passing up on what 2004 me would consider as the “next logical steps” to making humanity a spacefaring civilization, for an all or nothing Mars Colony that, almost certainly, will not happen as quickly or glamorously as Musk and his cheerleaders say it will.  It almost reminds me of some observations I heard about a year ago about this car company.  A decade ago, Tesla was The Electric Car Company.  But over the last decade or so, they haven’t done much.  Instead of expanding their market with more affordable cars, they seem to be just doing crazier and crazier publicity stunts.  And while they’re doing that, other car companies have started making their own electric cars, maybe not as exciting as Teslas, but actually available to the average car buyer.  A decade ago, Tesla was King, but no more.  Right now, SpaceX is King.  But by focusing on some grand vision, will their competitors be able to move into the “next logical steps?” A decade from now, will other rocket companies be taking us to the moon, while SpaceX is left doing stunts to stay in the news?