I think it’s time for a Twenty-First Century economic theory

Roughly speaking, there are two big economic theories in the world today: capitalism and socialism.  A lot of people spend a lot of time talking about the successes and failures of each.  Nobody really cares about my opinion, but it is that both are failing ideologies. 

Now some will be screaming “How has capitalism failed?” Well, let me ask a question.  Let’s say there is a company named WidgetCo that makes widgets.  These widgets are so wondrous that everyone wants one, and WidgetCo makes a lot of money selling them.  But they make their widgets so well that they almost never breakdown, and soon everyone who wants a widget has one, and WidgetCo goes out of business, leaving room for DoohickeyCo to enter the market with their groundbreaking doohickey.  Now, in the ideal of Capital C Capitalism, is WidgetCo a success?  I’d say yes.  They made a healthy profit off their widgets, how is that a failure?  But is that how things work in the real world?  In the real world, WidgetCo would make less quality widgets that breakdown, and then they’d stop making parts, or stop giving tech support, all to force people into buying the – basically the same but with some cosmetic changes – Widget2.  Then, since they have all the money, they corner the market on thingumabobs to prevent DoohickeyCo from making their doohickeys.  Is that the ideal of capitalism?  I’d say that’s more Capital G Capitalism (for greed).  An argument I’ve had for why the current system isn’t the greatest is that I never realized the point of capitalism was to create a plutocracy. 

Now, since I’ve had some valid criticism of capitalism as practiced, some will just yell, “That’s just because you’re a dirty socialist.” Wouldn’t those people be surprised to learn that I think socialism is failing as well.  I think Capital S Socialism is pretty good.  The problem comes with the implementation.  Say you start with the radical socialist idea that nobody should starve.  So you start with all the numbers from 2015, of where the people are, where the food is grown, how it’s transported and distributed, etc.  You crunch all the numbers and run simulations, and by 2017 you have the perfect system … on paper.  You then need to actually put it into place, which miraculously only takes until 2019.  But the end result is that in 2019 you have the perfect system in place to feed everyone … in 2015.  And then 2020 happens.  I think a lot of the horror stories told of socialism are a result, not of Capital S Socialism, but Capital B Socialism, for bureaucracy.  Just as with power WidgetCo can turn monopolistic, any socialist system can turn bureaucratic and then be unable – or unwilling – to change when the situation changes.

Here’s an idea for a better world.  Everyone gets 1000 Credits a month.  One bedroom apartments are capped at 500 Credits a month, and a month’s worth of groceries can be 100 Credits, if you get the generic cereal, for example.  Basic and emergency medical care is covered, but a lot of elective stuff isn’t.  To pay for all of this free stuff, all able people have to do X hours of community service each year.  You could either work for a few hours a week, or eight hours a day for a couple of weeks in January and be good for the year.  If you want a bigger apartment, or a car, or whatever, you need to get a job to earn extra money.  Some will cry that people need to contribute to society and they’ll point to some kid playing video games and just call them a slacker.  I wonder what those people think of these assholes who play golf all the time while the money their parents made makes more money.  Are they contributing to society?

I think my better world idea would be great.  I have no idea how such a system would be implemented, and know it would probably only work for a decade or two before technological advance would crack it apart.  It’s only a matter of time before autonomous vehicles will drive around checking for potholes.  When a pothole is detected, another autonomous vehicle will show up, block off traffic, and fix it.  And these autonomous vehicles will be built in automated factories, which will be supplied from automated mines.  In this system, does someone need to own all these vehicles?  Would we still need to pay taxes to pay for this system?  And this won’t just be for roads.  There will be robots building solar power stations, houses, picking food, transporting it all, etc. 

Adam Smith, the father of capitalism, died in 1790.  Karl Marx, often seen as the socialist poster boy, died in 1883.  Even if you think their ideas were perfect – they weren’t – they were Eighteenth and Nineteenth Century ideas.  We live in the Twenty-first.  Shouldn’t there be a new economic system that takes automation and bitcoin into account?  It doesn’t even have to be completely new.  I’d say this new system should be about 40% Capital S Socialism, 30% Capital C Capitalism, and 30% something new.  What do you think?

First city to go full autonomous taxi

I am a big supporter of autonomous vehicles.  Not only are they an aspect of “The Future” that we’ve been waiting so long for, but they will make life better for so many people.  I live – I like to say – a short drive from the middle of nowhere and if I need to go to work or a store, it takes half-an-hour to get there.  But if my car just drove itself, I’d have that extra time to read, watch YouTube, or write. 

Unfortunately, we’re not at the point of fully self-driving cars on country roads.  They’ll start in cities, which got me wondering which will be the first city with a self-driving taxi service.  I don’t mean when some tech billionaire gifts ten self-driving cars to their small hometown so it now has a self-driving taxi service, but some city – like New York or London – that currently has a taxi service switches over entirely to a self-driving service.  My top picks are some city in Japan, China, or Germany.  Japan because they like robots and have a population issue, and China and Germany to show off their technological might. 

Whatever city goes first, it will be closely watched by the rest of the world, and as long as there is no major issue there will be a rapid – maybe ten years – transition to self-driving taxis in other cities.  Mainly because they’ll be cheaper to operate because they don’t have to pay drivers.  They may even cut fares to knock the people protesting the “dehumanization” off-balance.  Still, there will be a few hold outs like New York and London which are known for their human taxis.

So millions of taxi customers may save money, but what about all the taxi drivers?  What will happen to them?  They’ll just have to find new jobs.  Before you start yelling that that’s a cold view to take, realize, that’s capitalism.  How many horse farms were put out of business when people started buying horseless carriages?  If you don’t complain about that, why complain now about drivers being put out of business by driverless cars?

Some of these taxi drivers could make a new career as … I guess tour guides.  If you just need to go to work, or the airport, or whatever, when you order your taxi you could specify a fully autonomous one.  But if you’re on vacation, you could get one with a tour guide.  These could take you around, tell you the history of the places you go by, maybe recommend some restaurants, stuff like that.  Those that aren’t that interesting, wouldn’t be rated that highly, and would have to look for yet another job. 

Before cars, a lot of people knew how to ride a horse, but now that’s rarely a necessary skill.  Now, most people know how to drive a car, but that will become an unnecessary skill in the coming decades.  It’s possible that in some future amusement park there might be a place where you could drive a car.  Perhaps these aging, out of work cabbies could give those whippersnappers a … crash course on how to drive.  Although a virtual reality setup might be better.  Of course, that could lead to a Virtual Virtual Skeeball scenario.

The economics of Speed Demon Construction

So the other night – as I was trying to fall asleep – I had an interesting idea I thought about turning into a story, for a bit.  It seems that – in the comics and movies and whatever – whenever someone develops supernatural powers they become either a superhero or supervillain.  But I wondered what if some Joe got super speed and instead of fighting crime they started a construction business.  You’d buy all the materials and have them sitting on your lawn and the Speed Demon would show up, and a minute later you’d have a new roof, or garage, or whatever.  You’d pay like a hundred bucks, and then he’s off to the next job.  He’d probably have a deal with all the local pizza and sub shops to have something set out for him every half-hour or so.  There’d be a blur and the pizza would be gone with a $50 bill in its place.

Of course even in a large town there wouldn’t be enough construction jobs to keep the Speed Demon active all the time, so he’d diversify.  Like he’d have Speed Demon Movers where, in like thirty seconds he can have all your belongings packed up and loaded in a van.  And there’d also be the Speed Demon Garage.  You stop in, say the engine is making an odd noise, and in less than a minute – with you not even getting out of the car – the engine is disassembled on the floor next to you.  He fixes whatever the issue was, puts it all back together, and only charges for parts and maybe a flat $20 for labor.

Now this Speed Demon would likely put dozens of small business out of business by being able to do in an hour what would take them a month.  And even charging so little for his time, he could still make tens of thousands of dollars a day.  Some would say that if hundreds of people lose their jobs because someone else can do it better and cheaper, well, that’s Capitalism, and if you even think anything bad about Capitalism, well, you’re just a dirty socialist.

While in this world toxic goo usually just gives you cancer instead of superpowers, we do have a burgeoning Speed Demon: automation.  It’s unlikely we’ll have machines able to replace your roof in a minute or less, but it is likely that someday a (self-driving?) truck will pull up to your house with robotic arms in the back that lift up the materials and other robots that scurry around and do all the work.  Not as fast, but robots won’t need a lunch break, or even a restroom break, can work 24/7, and you don’t have to pay them.  So we’re coming to a point where hundreds of people will lose their jobs because machines will be able to do it faster and cheaper.  Yea Capitalism.  But how does Capitalism work if nobody has money because nobody has jobs?

Self-driving car kits

Or would they be called KITTs?

I’m not sorry.

Anyway, I’ve been thinking about this lately and I’ve realized that there are basically three things needed to turn a regular car into a self-driving one: the computer, sensors, and the human/car interface.  And I wonder if car manufacturers will start designing their new cars for these future self-driving kits.  At first these kits would probably have to be installed at dealerships, but eventually you might just be able to order one online and install it yourself.  Or maybe you’d order one and a drone would fly it and a robotic mechanic to your place.  The mechanic would install it, then fly back with the drone. 

Getting off the idea of drones flying robotic … handybots to your house and back to self-driving car kits, for the computer, we probably already know roughly about how big they’ll be.  So the manufacturers only need to leave a space for it.  If nothing else, they could just stick it in the trunk.  But then there needs to be a way for it to get power and to send and receive signals.  And I wonder if it would be better to already have a cable in the car that you just have to plug everything into rather than having to take all the seats out to run a cable.  Would having these cables pre-installed be seen as a feature worth a little extra over the basic model?

The sensors – cameras, lidar, GPS, etc. – are usually placed at the corners of the car and maybe the roof.  Again, we probably have a rough idea of how big they’ll be, so they just need to leave space for them in the right spots, and a way to power and communicate with them. 

Probably the biggest issue with upgrading a car to self-driving will be the interface.  Like you could put one of those fancy touchscreens in my current car, it would just take ripping the entire dashboard out and putting a new one in.  That kind of defeats the purpose of a simple kit.  I wonder if in the next few years we’ll see cars with touchscreens that just need a software upgrade to go from normal car to self-driving.

So that was just some ideas I had.  I probably would have kept them to myself but then I thought of that joke and had to share it.  I’m still not sorry.

Hunter-gatherers of money

In ages past, people got their food by being hunter-gatherers.  Ten people picking berries or clubbing a deer could feed, maybe eleven people.  The lone moocher being either a baby or an honored elder in their thirties. 

And then agriculture was invented.  And then fewer and fewer people were needed to feed the tribe.  Instead of having to spend the entire day looking for food, this allowed people to spend their time making better tools, art, or any of the billion components of what goes into what we call civilization.  Along the way someone said this chicken is worth that shiny pebble, and the shiny pebble is also worth that painting of Bob.  This was all to introduce a medium of exchange, in case the painter wanted the chicken, but the farmer didn’t want the painting of Bob.

Now people spend say, forty hours a week (not all day, but still a good chunk) doing things for modern shiny pebbles, which we then spend on food, shelter, internet access, whatever.  In a way, we’ve become hunter-gatherers of money.  We do all this work just so we have the means to survive.  And if you don’t contribute to “The System,” there are many who will call you a moocher and some fringe nutjobs will even say that you should starve.  They long for the days when those who couldn’t contribute to the tribe were left to the jackals.   

Being hunter-gatherers of money, is that it?  Have we reached the pinnacle of civilization?  Just like the agriculture revolution radically changed the world, we’re now entering the automation revolution.  Before a human could make ten widgets an hour, now a machine can make fifteen.  But they can do it 24/7, without even a restroom break.  And they don’t call in sick, and they don’t need healthcare or pensions.  As the farmer took over all the jobs of the hunter-gatherers allowing the people to do other things and still eat, will the machines take over all the various jobs allowing us to move on to other things while still being able to eat and have homes and the internet?  What grander civilization will we build when we are no longer restrained by how many shiny pebbles we have?

Possible Futures – Trial stores

In the not too distant future, there may come a day where the supercomputer – or low level AI – that runs your house notices that you are almost out of toothpaste.  It will then order some, possibly scheduling the delivery to occur at 3 AM so as to not disturb you.  Either an autonomous drone would fly the package to a dronepad on the roof of your house, or an autonomous delivery truck will drive it to your house and a robot will walk it to your front door.  Your botler (robotic butler) will take delivery and place it in the bathroom for you to find in the morning.

But your house wouldn’t just keep you in a steady supply of toilet paper, it would also keep you supplied with bananas, coffee, and mint ice cream.  Instead of you taking a minute to open your cabinets to see what you need and making a list, your house will either just reorder it or you’ll go, “House, I’m hungry for lobster,” and it will arrange to have some flown in to you.  And unless you’re particular about preparing it yourself, your botler will take care of everything.

For people who stick to the same brand of toothpaste, or coffee, or whatever for years, such a setup would be ideal.  But for people who want to try new things, I predict the emergence of what I’m calling trial stores.  These would be stores where, instead of having full size bottles of shampoo, would just have trial sized bottles.  But instead of having just a shelf full of Brand X shampoo, there would be dozens, or hundreds of brands from manufacturers all over the world.  You’d select a handful, take them home and try them.  Any you like you’d tell your house and it would add them to the list of brands to order.  You could have it set up that when you run out of the Number 1 Brand on the list, it orders the Number 2 Brand, and just cycles through them all.  Or you could have it set to random, or you could say to make sure you have Brand Y whenever you’re going on a date, or any other setup you can think of. 

Now these trial stores could be completely autonomous with robots stocking shelves and an Amazon Go style checkout.  There could also be systems – screens or more robots – you could ask for suggestions.  But I think, especially at first to make older people more comfortable, there may be human sommeliers, but for shampoos.  “You’re looking for a flowery shampoo?  Well I tried this Vietnamese brand last week and I really enjoyed it.”

You may be asking, if your house can just order stuff online, why doesn’t it just order a sample pack of a dozen or so types of pudding to see which you like.  That will also happen.  But people like to get out and be with other people.  How often while you’ve been grocery shopping have you seen people who bump into someone they haven’t seen in months?  Probably an important part of a trial store will be a little café for customers to just sit and chat for a bit.  Especially when things can be so easily ordered online, such cafés would be an additional reason to go out.

Automation – in the production and delivery of items – will drastically change the everyday idea of shopping.  We may not end up with trial stores, but the stores we have now won’t last forever.