Showing posts with label future. Show all posts
Showing posts with label future. Show all posts

Tuesday, May 6, 2025

Why I don’t have issues with trans people

I’m not an asshole.

Another reason – that will take longer to explain – is that I do believe that many of our current problems will be solved by technology.  Setting up newer problems that will then need to be solved by newer technology, and so on.  And when I say solved by technology, I mean actual problems actually solved.  None of this, bitcoin powered AI pills to give you a bigger dick, or whatever the latest snake oil the techbros are selling.  The technology I’m talking about is once a year you go to the doctor who gives you a shot that is guaranteed to wipe out 99% of any cancers you were developing.

What I picture would be in such an anti-cancer shot would be thousands of nano machines that would be programmed to hunt down any cancerous cells.  If they find one, they either destroy it themselves, or set off some signal so your immune system comes in and destroys it.  Once we figure out how to do such a thing, it will take a few decades for all the clinical trials to show that it’s safe, during which time the technology would only improve, probably by many factors. 

Another possible use for medical nano machines would be building bones.  They might start for people with weak bones as the nano machines slowly build up the bones, but eventually they’d be used to fix breaks.  At first, these would be slow, maybe only shaving a few days off the time needed to wear a cast, but after a decade or so, it could be you could break a leg, go to the hospital, and walk out the next day as good as new. 

Of course, medical nano machines wouldn’t be used just for life saving stuff, they’d eventually be used for cosmetic procedures.  If they can fix leg bones, they can also make changes to the bone structure of one’s face.  Again, at first such procedures would be expensive and take a lot of time and need to be carried out in a doctor’s office, but over the decades as the technology improves, it will get to the point such stuff can be done at home.

To bring back the point of this post on why I don’t have issues with trans people, is that I firmly believe that, not a hundred years from now but almost certainly two hundred years from now, the technology – of nano machines as well as genetic alterations – will exist for people to basically be shapeshifters.  Not becoming six different people as you walk down the sidewalk, or turning into a giraffe, but more like punching in tomorrow’s body in your Chango-Tron before going to bed and waking up in an altered body.  A lot of people would feel no need to use such technology.  Some will do it occasionally, for a laugh or for sex.  Some will experiment with a dozen bodies until they discover the real them.  And some will discover the real them is one of constant change. 


So if I think the future of humanity is one where everyone will be able to change their body in any way they see fit, why would I have an issue with people doing that now with our limited technology?  Not to mention my general view that people are people, and only assholes should be treated like assholes. 

Friday, September 22, 2023

Short story – “Dust to Dust”

Warning, while not graphic, this story does contain content that many will find disturbing.

“Dust to Dust”

Three juvenile delinquents stood in the small waiting room when Maria Cuevas walked in carrying three small buckets.  She walked up to the nearest boy whose name tag read “Cyril Motlanthe” and handed him a bucket.

“What’s this for?” Cyril asked, not taking the bucket.

“Did you eat breakfast this morning?” Maria asked.

“Yeah.”

“Then this is for when you puke.” When Cyril still didn’t take the bucket, Maria said, “You either puke in the bucket, or stay and mop the floor.”

Cyril glanced at the other two kids with a smirk before snatching the offered bucket. 

Maria then handed buckets to Soad Kaya and Vladimir Kopacz who only grinned when they took theirs.

Maria stepped back and looked at them.  “My name is Maria Cuevas.  I’m the Assistant Plant Manager here.  Now I don’t care how you screwed up to get sent to the Pedogenesis Department, or as we call it PedDep, on Career Day.  Instead of going to the hydroponic farms, or to Apollo to study governance, or one of the spaceports to watch a launch, you were sent to the department you’ve probably never heard of before.  But PedDep is one of the most important departments on Mercury.  It’s also the shittiest.  Which makes it the perfect place to punish those convicted of minor offenses.”

“So why are you here?” Soad asked, to grins from her compatriots.

Maria chuckled.  She had lost track of how many such youngsters had stood before her, thinking they had asked such an original question.  “Oh,” she replied, “I guess I’m a bit of a sadist.” She paused to let that sink in a bit, before adding, “I don’t know how many kids I’ve seen standing there thinking they’re so tough and important, only to watch them leave with their shoes squishing with vomit.”

That wasn’t the kind of response they had expected.  It knocked some of the arrogant glow from their faces, replacing it with the slightest touch of green.

“Now,” Maria continued, “when you discovered you were being sent to the Pedogenesis Department, did any of you bother finding out what we do here?”

“You make dirt,” Vladimir said.

Maria stepped forward and glared down at him, even though he was only a few centimeters shorter.  “How old are you?”

Vladimir glanced at the other two then replied, “63 Revs.”

“If you were an adult I would slap you.” Stepping back she told all of them, “We do not use the ‘D-word’ here because it is too base.  In PedDep we create soil.”

Maria watched the three share confused looks with one another, then said, “Follow me,” and led them into the Main Shredding Room.  The room was ten meters by five with double doors on each of the short sides.  Along the long wall opposite of the door they entered, was a metal panel that could slide up and down.  It was up and blocked the view of the shredder and what was to be shredded. 

Maria let the kids look around the nearly bare room before beginning, “In simplest terms, soil is a combination of minerals from rocks and organic matter.  Every day, over a kilometer’s worth of tunnels are excavated around the planet.  Any metal or mineral useful for industry are extracted from the debris, we collect what we want, and the rest is dumped up on the surface.  So we have plenty of rock minerals, but very little organic matter.  It wasn’t much of a problem for the first colonists because they set up hydroponic greenhouses which don’t need soil.  While most of our food is still grown hydroponically, it’s hard to make a hydroponic football pitch.  So all the public parkland on Mercury is planted in soil we make here.  As well as all the potted plants people have in their homes, since soil for them is just easier than a bunch of little hydroponic systems.

“At first, soil was made using ground up rocks mixed with composted sewage and plant wastes; those being the only sources of excess organic material in the early days.  But humans weren’t the only animals to come to Mercury.  Early colonists brought chickens, rabbits, even goats.  Their manure is also used to make soil, but what were we to do when those animals died, or were butchered for meat?  All those bones and organs like brains and lungs became a new stream of organic material to create soil.”

Maria pointed to one of the double doors.  “Through there,” she explained, “is the Receiving Room where material to be processed is loaded onto a conveyor belt.  The belt comes in to here,” she patted the metal cover and continued, “where it comes to our first shredder.  The shredders are a series of rotating drums with diamond coated teeth.  In a couple of minutes this first one can chop a truckload of animal carcasses into chunks no bigger than ten centimeters by two.  Further drums breaks things down into pieces only a few millimeters in size.  These are the first steps of turning waste organic material into soil.” As Maria had spoken, the kid’s faces had lit up.  It was somewhat disturbing how the Career Day kids always seemed interested in watching stuff be shredded.  But she knew they would quickly change their minds.

“Every few days we process a truckload of animal carcasses from the various farms and butcher shops around the planet.   We also handle animals from the zoo as well as pets.  But there is one other item we process which you’ll see today.

“Some people,” Maria explained, “usually for religious reasons, request that when they die they be put out onto the surface.  When the sun rises, it incinerates their body and their atoms can be carried away by the solar wind across the solar system, even out into interstellar space.  Other people, knowing of our constant shortage of organic matter for soil, choose another option.”

Maria pushed a button and the metal panel dropped away.  Behind thick safety glass was a conveyor belt leading to the two massive drums, all motionless.  On the belt lay three naked, human corpses.  The youngest was over eighty Earth years old. 

“You’ve got to be joking,” Soad said.

“Why would I joke about such a solemn business?”

“They’re people,” Soad said.

Maria waited for a moment, then stated, “They were people.  Now, they’re just several hundred kilos of dead, organic matter.”

Maria turned away from the kids and explained, “Their families have already said their goodbyes, so we can get started.” She hit another button and the two drums began spinning.  Despite the thick glass, a low whine came into the room.

Once the drums got up to speed, the conveyor belt began carrying the corpses towards them.  Maria was watching the conveyor belt and seconds before the first body went in she heard the distinctive sound of someone vomiting behind her.  This was quickly followed by two more.

Maria waited until the three bodies had gone through before turning around.  All three kids were standing at the opposite wall with their backs turned.  Maria frowned when she saw several splashes of vomit that had missed the buckets.

With a sigh, she went to a storage cupboard and grabbed three new buckets.  She told them to set their buckets down and take a new one.  While Soad and Vladimir didn’t look anywhere near the Shredder, Cyril just glanced at it and retched into his new bucket.  That almost made Soad and Vladimir vomit into theirs.  Maria rolled her eyes and went back to the cupboard and got three more buckets.  Maria had learned long ago it was better to leave even partially filled buckets with their odors behind. 

She led the kids into the next room.  Here, the smaller shredders made smaller pieces, but they were set close enough together that one couldn’t really see what was being shredded.  Not that the kids even looked.

“At this stage of the process,” Maria explained, “water is added to the material stream creating a slurry.  This makes further processing easier.”

Something about that made Vladimir retch. 

After grabbing a new bucket from another cabinet, Maria led them down a flight of stairs to the next room.  “Here the slurry comes to series a settlement pools,” she explained.  “In this first one, bits of bone, teeth, beaks, hoofs, whatever fall to the bottom where they are recovered.  There really isn’t much we can do with them – any minerals that we could extract we already have plenty of from excavating tunnels – so they are ground into a powder which is then usually mixed in with cement for use in general construction.”

Before leading them to the next stage of the process, she said, “If it makes things easier, from this point on you’ll just being seeing material from earlier runs.  The last load we ran yesterday came from a chicken farm.”

In the next room there were a couple of technicians checking some equipment.  They shared a brief smile with Maria about the look of the kids.  While they still looked a tad green, they’d apparently already vomited everything in their stomachs. 

Maria pointed through a thick window at a five meter long cylinder.  It was on a slant, with the bottom a meter lower than the top.  “That’s the Solid Separator Cylinder.  Inside is a smaller cylinder with walls made of a very fine mesh.  The remaining material from the settling tanks it pumped in at the top, and the inner cylinder rotates at a high speed.  The centrifugal force squeezes most of the fluids through the mesh and into the outer cylinder where it’s collected.  The remaining material – or pulp – falls out of the bottom onto a conveyor belt.”

Maria pointed to a technician working near the cylinder, but she wasn’t sure if any of the kids even looked.  “Do you see that technician?  They’re wearing ear protection because the Separator is very loud when it’s running.  The reason we can’t hear it is because,” here she tapped the window, “this isn’t just one window.  The Separator is actually in its own room that’s surrounded by a two centimeter vacuum gap.  A vacuum is the best sound proofer in the universe.”

Vladimir actually chuckled at that, which brought a slight smile to Maria.

“The fluid that is collected,” she continued, “is pumped into huge storage tanks.  Its processing is pretty interesting, but can only be done when the sun’s in the sky.  Up on the surface, we’re still some two weeks from dawn, and I doubt you want to wait that long.  But once the sun rises, the fluid will be pumped under pressure through specialized pipes on the surface.  Inside the pipes, the fluid will be heated to several hundred degrees.  The intense heat breaks apart most of the chemical bonds of the complex molecules.  In goes a mix of blood, fats, even microbes, and out comes a stream of carbon dioxide, methanol and other smaller molecules.  They’re sorted and collected to be used however they are needed.  Even the iron from the hemoglobin in blood is collected, but more as a way to keep it from contamination other processes than for industrial use.

“Our next stop is to view some of the composting rooms.” Maria led them down another flight of stairs and along a short hallway.  The room they entered was five by twenty meters.  Along one long wall were five observation windows, each looking into a circular room.  Each contained a mound of dark material.  In one room, a slowly rotating blade was turning over and mixing the mound, while water was being sprayed onto another.

“Like with the Solid Separator Cylinder, the composting rooms are separated from the rest of the facility with vacuum gaps.  But it’s not for sound insulation, but odor insulation.  You may think your stomachs are empty now, but if you caught a whiff from any of those rooms you’d be surprised what you’d dredge up.” Over the last few minutes, the kids had been starting to look better, but that comment checked that.

“In the Composting Rooms we mix three streams of materials.  There’s the pulp from our Separator, there’s plant wastes from either the parks or hydroponic gardens, and there’s partially treated sewage.  The sewage plants take part of the sewage stream and send it to the hydroponic gardens and we get the rest.  But we don’t just throw everything we have together.  Soil to be used to grow grass on a playground is different than that needed to grow grass for a pasture, or soil used to grow trees.  There are different nutrients in the three material streams, so we adjust the amounts of each depending on what type of soil we need to make.

“Into the pile we add various bacteria which start to break down, or decompose, the material.  This turns complex structures like plant stems or flesh into small bits plants can use to grow.  The decomposition process releases heat which helps to kill off any pathogens that arrive through any of the streams.  The rooms are monitored to make sure the piles are at a temperature and oxygen level to the bacteria’s liking so they keep working.”

Maria pointed at the mound being watered.  “That pile started a week ago.  In less than a Rev, it will be turned into a rich compost.  Once it’s fully composted, it will be baked just to be sure no pathogens survived.  Then it can be used to help fertilize what’s already been planted, or it can be mixed with rocks ground up in a separate processing stream.  We then have a basic soil ready to fill in the parkland of new tunnels.”

Maria shrugged.  “That’s a quick overview of Soil Creation 101.  I could show you all of the various processes, but I’m sure you’ve seen more than you care to.  If you’ll follow me, I’ll take you where you can clean up and I’ll answer any questions you have.”

Five minutes later, they all sat in a small conference room.  The kids had washed their faces, and Maria had gotten herself a cup of coffee.  Taking a sip, she asked, “Now, do you have any questions?”

None of the three had been looking at her, but now Soad did and asked, “Why did you show us that?”

Maria took another sip of coffee before answering.  “For most of human history, humans lived in small bands of usually related individuals.  These tribes only survived if all the members knew that they could trust and rely upon one another.  That was also true for the early space colonies where one idiot screwing around could have killed everyone.  You three,” Maria’s finger swept passed all of them, “are idiots screwing around.  I don’t know the details of your cases, but the usual reason kids are sent here are for bullying the other students, selling narcotics, disorderly conduct, shit like that.  While stuff like that won’t kill everyone on the planet, it’s still thought best to nip such actions in the bud.  The reason we hold on to some bodies to run through on Career Day is to show screw-ups like you that some people – even in death – are doing more to advance life on this planet than you are.”

“All I did was cheat on a test,” Cyril said.

Vladimir barked out a laugh.  “You hacked the system to change your grades.”

After a moment, Cyril explained, “That’s a kind of cheating.  But being forced to watch someone be … shredded for that seems a tad cruel and unusual.”

“I thought you all turned away,” Maria said.  “Nobody was forcing you to watch.”

“Semantics,” Soad said.

Maria shrugged.  “True.” She looked at Cyril and said, “So, instead of just facing the consequences of not studying, you decided that the rules shouldn’t apply to you.  Back in the tribal days, someone like that was usually banished.”

“So seeing people being turned into … soil is supposed to keep me from hacking?”

“No.” Maria let the kids look confused while she took another sip of coffee.

“Then what was the point?” Soad asked.

Maria smiled.  “All three of you are from the Celaeno Corridor, yes?” After the three nodded, Maria continued, “The central park of Celaeno was planted about ninety Revs ago.  I can’t be certain, but it’s most likely that some of the first people to set foot on Mercury went into the soil there.  In life they opened up a new world.  In death, they gave us a way to make oxygen, and flowers, and a place for children to run and play.”

Pointing in a random direction, Maria said, “The majority of adults in the tunnels know what we do here, but they don’t want to think about it.  They want to think that soil is … just something that happens.  They don’t want to think about what, or who, goes into the soil because it reminds them of their mortality.  Thinking about one’s mortality makes one wonder what mark they’ll leave on the world.  At some point growing up, most people realize that their only bit of immortality will be in how they are remembered.  There are few Shakespeares and Gandhis who will be remembered for thousands of years, but even they will fade away in time.  Most of us just have to do our best with our families and friends and try to leave the world better than we found it. 

“So why show you people being shredded when you’re not yet adults?  In the hopes a large dose of mortality will make you reconsider your lives.  Just remember that one day – sooner than you would like – you’ll die.  Will you be remembered as a jerk who didn’t play by the rules, or will people actually miss you?”

Maria pointed at the door.  “Go out that door and turn to the left and you’ll be back at the entrance.  Whether you go and make the world a better place or not is all up to you.  Choose wisely, for you only get one shot at it.”

Monday, June 26, 2023

What will we have accomplished in space by 2033?

There are a lot of things I’m waiting for in the long quest to turn humanity into a spacefaring civilization.  I made a list over four years ago of four things I’m waiting for, and so far we’ve accomplished one.  One is a few years away from being done, one is more than a decade away, and the other, who knows if it will be accomplished.  But I was thinking about all of this the other day, and I wondered what will we likely accomplish in the next decade.  This is what I came up with.

Suborbital tourist flights will probably be finished.

For years, the idea of suborbital tourist flights excited me and I truly thought that – even though the common folk could never afford them – they would excite the public about space.  But it took so long for these companies to get flying, that I figure the industry is DOA.  People will still fly, but instead of the expected hundreds of people a year, it will probably only be dozens.  And the next accident – especially if passengers die – will ground the entire industry.  There will still be suborbital flights for experiments, and maybe once a blue moon they’ll brave the paperwork to have a technician along with the experiments, but I expect by 2033 suborbital tourism will be in the history books.

Private space stations.

One factor against suborbital tourism will be orbital tourism.  Yes, orbital tourism will be 1,000X as expensive as suborbital tourism, but you’ll get a 10,000X greater experience.  And the best place to go for orbital tourism will be a private space station.  Now, the ISS is great, but it’s not a hotel.  It’s a stinky laboratory filled with people doing various experiments.  To really get your space tourism money’s worth, you’d want a purpose-built hotel with large windows to view the Earth and space, and sound-proof cabins to join the 200-mile-high club.

But private space stations won’t just be hotels.  Some could be other laboratories, or even new businesses.  I can easily imagine robotic tugs bringing broken satellites to a space station where astronauts fix and upgrade them before returning them to service. 

Landing on the moon.

The biggest thing that will likely happen in the next decade will be humans returning to the moon.  By 2033 there may only be two or three landings, but they might be from two different programs, which will be fantastic.  And hopefully these won’t just be flags and footprints missions, but ones that start building a permanent presence on the moon. 

Mars?

Unlike what seems to be a majority of space people, I’m not that interested in human exploration of Mars.  Yes, we’ll do it someday, but unlikely in my lifetime.  The main reason, is that I’ve long maintained that while we are 100X better prepared to go to the moon now than we were in the 1960’s, going to Mars is 200X more complicated than going to the moon.  Any rush to get a crewed mission to Mars in the next decade will, in my humble opinion, be doomed to fail.  In fact, a successful, crewed mission to Mars by 2043 is probably overly optimistic.

***


So, those are my thoughts.  Do you agree or disagree with them?

Sunday, July 17, 2022

Moon landing sale!

I am a big supporter of returning to the moon; I think it’s our best way of becoming a spacefaring civilization.  As such, I will often spend an hour or so going over the list of future moon missions on Wikipedia.  As I write this, CAPSTONE is on its way, but there could be a dozen more missions within the next year.  I wish them all success. 

But the reason for this sale is to mark the Apollo 11 landing.  Even though it happened before I was born, I do see it as an important day.  So to mark this year’s anniversary, I’m having a sale on three of my ebooks.  Just so you don’t think I’m just having a sale to have a sale, two of them deal with the moon, and the third deals with the future. 

You’ll be able to grab the following three ebooks for free between Monday July 18th and Friday July 22nd.

 


The Moon Before Mars

Over the last few years a lot of people have caught Mars fever. It seems a week doesn’t go by without a report of some new group wanting to send people to Mars, or some big name in the industry talking about why we have to go to Mars, or articles talking about the glorious future humanity will have on Mars. All of this worries me. In my opinion, a Mars base is currently not sustainable because there’s no way for it to make money. A few missions may fly doing extraordinary science, but if it’s then cancelled for cost the whole Mars Project may just be seen as an expensive stunt.

Fortunately, there are other places in the solar system besides Mars. While bases on the moon and amongst the asteroids won’t be as inspirational as one on Mars, they will have opportunities for businesses to make goods and services as well as profits, meaning less chance of them being outright cancelled. This will make life better on Earth and secure a firm foothold in space for humanity. The essays in The Moon Before Mars: Why returning to the moon makes more sense than rushing off to Mars allow me to describe my ideas on what can be accomplished on the moon and with the asteroids, and why Mars isn’t the destiny of humanity its cheerleaders make it out to be.

The Future is Coming

As a science fiction writer, I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about how technology will change the way we live. I’ve come up with these ten short essays about science fictional elements that will – almost certainly – one day become science fact as a way for people to start coming to terms with them. Because I’ve spent time thinking about clones and AIs, I feel I’ll be okay when they do finally show up whereas most people will probably freak out. I hope these essays will get people to start thinking about the future because, no matter what we do, the future is coming.

A Cabin Under a Cloudy Sea and other stories


Hopefully, in the not too distant future humans will return to the moon. We will build bases and colonies, make farms and factories, and live, love and learn. A Cabin Under a Cloudy Sea and other stories contains five short stories that are all set upon the moon. They give the tiniest glimpse of the possibilities awaiting us there.

Monday, March 28, 2022

Space Station Museum

Recently, there was news about how the International Space Station will one day be deorbited.  And this was met with cries of “Can’t it just be boosted into a higher orbit,” or, “Can’t it be turned into a museum?” and other such things.  And my knee-jerk reaction is that it should be preserved as a historic “building.” But then reality kicked in.  The station is getting old and there’s no telling how long some parts of it will stay safe.  Having a controlled reentry after all the crew and science are taken off is infinitely better than a catastrophic break up with crew – or tourists – onboard leaving a huge debris cloud that could damage satellites or other stations. 

While thinking on all of this, I realized that the ISS could live again someday as part of a museum.  This would be in orbit – as part of an even larger space station – and would start with models of everything: from spacecraft like the Vostok capsule of Yuri Gagarin, to the Space Shuttle, to the Chinese Shenzhou, as well as all the space stations from Skylab and Mir and the ISS.  And then there would be the full size versions, so the tourists could try to cram into a Mercury capsule or just float around in Mir.  These wouldn’t be a full recreation, there wouldn’t be any need for solar panels for example, just the interior space.  Any views out windows would just be video screens showing what would have been seen.  And since this would be in zero-g, you could cram things in any orientation they could fit.  Like you could have the Crew Dragon mockup squeezed in between the Tiangong and Salyut 1 mockups.  And this museum wouldn’t be the entirety of the complex.  Like you could be inside the Skylab section, and just on the other side of the bulkhead would be the linen closet for a hotel. 


While it will be a sad day when the ISS is deorbited, hopefully it will be replaced with bigger and better stations.  And while these replacements will primarily be used for science, they will one day be replaced with even bigger, even better stations that will still do science but will also hold tourists.  And as more and more humans live and work in space, hopefully someone will eventually build a space station museum so that future generations can marvel at how “small” the ISS was.

Wednesday, December 15, 2021

Some thoughts on Elon Musk

I’ll start by saying that I’m a SpaceX fan.  I watched their first successful Falcon 1 flight and I probably jumped for joy at the thought at the beginning of a new era in spaceflight.  And at first, I was a Musk fan.  I think my biggest complaint was his focus on Mars.  I’m a Return to the Moon person, who thinks the best way to make humanity a spacefaring civilization is to go mine the asteroids and build the rotating space stations and ships we see so often in fiction.  In that type of world, Mars is more of a dead end.  I do support the scientific exploration of Mars, I just don’t see much future in colonizing it.

So I was never one of those who thought of Musk as the perfect sage.  But over the last few years, whenever I see him trending on Twitter, I groan and wonder, “What asshole thing did he do now?” My … respect, I guess you’d call it, for Musk has nosedived over the years, but the final straw came when I realized something.

There are multiple spacecraft in orbit of Mars right now.  The reason we have so many is that we don’t have tricorders, or sensors, that we can just point at an object and get 80,000 pieces of data about.  We have cameras that can only take pictures in a dozen or so wavelengths at only certain resolutions.  If we want super detailed images, that’s another camera.  If we want a look at subsurface stuff, that’s an entirely different instrument like ground penetrating radar.  Is there any radiation?  Well that’s another instrument.  And since these spacecraft were all paid for by governments, they try to get the broadest amount of science for their buck.  Meaning if someone really wanted to build a Mars Colony, they’d probably need a dedicated spacecraft with specific instruments to look for needed resources or potential hazards to help narrow down a site.  The Mars Orbiter Mission apparently cost less than $100 million, which is about what Musk makes when he sneezes.  So why hasn’t Musk paid to have the first privately funded interplanetary mission?  Some might say that it’s better to wait until the Starship is flying so they can send a big spacecraft to Mars.  But we can learn a lot with a small spacecraft that could be launched on a Falcon Heavy, which could lead to better choices on what to allocate on a future Starship. 

I’m starting to wonder, is Musk’s talk about Mars just a politician’s campaign promises?

Monday, November 22, 2021

A space hotel problem, parking

I was recently thinking about space hotels.  I’m a space nerd who writes science fiction, so that’s just a Tuesday for me.  But I wondered what a basic space hotel would be like, so I designed one.  What I came up with has fifteen modules – basically the largest thing you can fit in a rocket faring – several of which would be nearly identical.  I’ll do my best to describe this three dimensional object.  You start with the core station which has seven modules arranged as a straight sided “8.” From the middle joints, there will be two modules sticking straight out and two sticking straight back.  These will have docking ports at the end and the modules themselves will be used mostly for storage.  Also from these middle joints will be two other modules to each side.  The outer most ones will have solar panels, while one of the inner ones will be the main control area and the other one will have an airlock and storage space for space suits.

Back to the core station.  The central module will be the galley/common area.  One side of the “8” will have the two guest quarter modules.  These will each have spaces for four cabins, which can be opened up into double cabins for couples.  These modules will also have a toilet, and maybe some exercise equipment.  One of the modules on the other side will be the crew quarters, with another toilet and more exercise equipment.  The other side module will have an area for some experiments, but will mainly be a play area, where the guests can play with Slinkies, globs of water, whatever.  Now the main draw of the station will be the two observation modules; one facing Earth while the other faces the stars.  In a fantasy world, these would be all glass, but in reality there would just be a series of meter in diameter windows.  There might be copulas that could be attached to give an even better experience.  In addition there would probably be a couple telescopes mounted on the outside to give better views of things.

The basic idea I had would be there would be a crew of four who would spend six months or so on the station.  They would take care of all the maintenance and unloading of supply ships, be tour guides, and lead in case of emergency.  Between guests, they could do minor experiments – like exposing various materials to space for a year or so to see how they degrade – to have an extra revenue stream.  The guests would come up for two week stays.  The idea I had would be that they would be staggered, so each guest batch would have five or six days where they are the only guests. 

At first, I thought the airlock would just be for the crew for maintenance, because I figured the training to be in a spacesuit goes more into the area of professional astronaut than tourist.  But then I remembered that tandem skydiving is a thing.  Basically, you’d have a two person, updated version of the Manned Maneuvering Unit that the crew astronaut would control, while the tourist sat in front of them.  The crew astronaut might fly ten meters or so from the station, then let the tourist fire the thrusters a few times before taking back control and going back to the station. 

Now a visit to such a station would be a fantastic experience and one I would gladly take.  But, there’s only so much you can do in a cramped station.  To develop games like zero-g football, or whatever, would require open spaces twenty, fifty, or more meters in diameter.  That’s well beyond the capability of a small hotel like I designed.  To have such spaces – as well as allowing the possibility of middle class people affording such a trip – would require large hotels with hundreds of guests.  But if it takes thirty or forty capsules to get the hundreds of guests to the hotel, where to you park them all?  Not to mention any redundancy for lifeboat situations. 

One lifeboat solution could be a premise I had which I could never hammer out into an actual story.  It was about the Ælling, which is Danish for duckling, a play on “The Ugly Duckling” story.  The Ælling was the first spaceship built in space from resources mined in space.  Basically, they mined iron from an asteroid and made several sheets a couple meters on a side.  These were welded together into a cube with a hatch on one side.  This was placed into a larger cube, and regolith was added in between to act as micrometeor protection.  The pilot – in a spacesuit – got inside, and using compressed gas thrusters stuck on the outside, moved away from the mining space station where this was built.  They flew a few kilometers away, turned around, and came back.  It was ugly, but it worked.  It was built just as a test of building spaceships in space, but larger versions could be used as lifeboats on space stations.  If something happened, a dozen or so people could get into one of these things that had supplies for a week or two.  It would float in orbit until a rescue ship could be launched to gather everyone.  So instead of needing return vehicles for the hundred or so guests, you could just have a bunch of these basic lifeboats stuck on the outside of your hotel. 

Or instead of lifeboats, you could have hardened storm cellars that would be modules scattered throughout the hotel structure.  These could hold a dozen or so people for a couple of weeks, and they’d be designed to survive the hotel breaking up.  Of course, then there’d be all this debris floating around them making recovery efforts difficult.

Or you could just have giant spaceships that could hold a hundred or so people, so you’d only need a couple docked to the hotel.  But then will the hotel be too big for people to get to them in an emergency?  If the hotel is depressurizing, you may only have a couple of minutes to maneuver your way through hundreds of meters of corridors to get to the docking ports.

Or I guess you could do all three options.  But do you really want to design your hotel to be half lifeboats and storm cellars?  It would probably be worse to tell your guests, “If something terrible happens, half of you will die.”

Just another level of complexity to add to the idea of space hotels.

Monday, August 23, 2021

I think it’s time for a Twenty-First Century economic theory

Roughly speaking, there are two big economic theories in the world today: capitalism and socialism.  A lot of people spend a lot of time talking about the successes and failures of each.  Nobody really cares about my opinion, but it is that both are failing ideologies. 

Now some will be screaming “How has capitalism failed?” Well, let me ask a question.  Let’s say there is a company named WidgetCo that makes widgets.  These widgets are so wondrous that everyone wants one, and WidgetCo makes a lot of money selling them.  But they make their widgets so well that they almost never breakdown, and soon everyone who wants a widget has one, and WidgetCo goes out of business, leaving room for DoohickeyCo to enter the market with their groundbreaking doohickey.  Now, in the ideal of Capital C Capitalism, is WidgetCo a success?  I’d say yes.  They made a healthy profit off their widgets, how is that a failure?  But is that how things work in the real world?  In the real world, WidgetCo would make less quality widgets that breakdown, and then they’d stop making parts, or stop giving tech support, all to force people into buying the – basically the same but with some cosmetic changes – Widget2.  Then, since they have all the money, they corner the market on thingumabobs to prevent DoohickeyCo from making their doohickeys.  Is that the ideal of capitalism?  I’d say that’s more Capital G Capitalism (for greed).  An argument I’ve had for why the current system isn’t the greatest is that I never realized the point of capitalism was to create a plutocracy. 

Now, since I’ve had some valid criticism of capitalism as practiced, some will just yell, “That’s just because you’re a dirty socialist.” Wouldn’t those people be surprised to learn that I think socialism is failing as well.  I think Capital S Socialism is pretty good.  The problem comes with the implementation.  Say you start with the radical socialist idea that nobody should starve.  So you start with all the numbers from 2015, of where the people are, where the food is grown, how it’s transported and distributed, etc.  You crunch all the numbers and run simulations, and by 2017 you have the perfect system … on paper.  You then need to actually put it into place, which miraculously only takes until 2019.  But the end result is that in 2019 you have the perfect system in place to feed everyone … in 2015.  And then 2020 happens.  I think a lot of the horror stories told of socialism are a result, not of Capital S Socialism, but Capital B Socialism, for bureaucracy.  Just as with power WidgetCo can turn monopolistic, any socialist system can turn bureaucratic and then be unable – or unwilling – to change when the situation changes.

Here’s an idea for a better world.  Everyone gets 1000 Credits a month.  One bedroom apartments are capped at 500 Credits a month, and a month’s worth of groceries can be 100 Credits, if you get the generic cereal, for example.  Basic and emergency medical care is covered, but a lot of elective stuff isn’t.  To pay for all of this free stuff, all able people have to do X hours of community service each year.  You could either work for a few hours a week, or eight hours a day for a couple of weeks in January and be good for the year.  If you want a bigger apartment, or a car, or whatever, you need to get a job to earn extra money.  Some will cry that people need to contribute to society and they’ll point to some kid playing video games and just call them a slacker.  I wonder what those people think of these assholes who play golf all the time while the money their parents made makes more money.  Are they contributing to society?

I think my better world idea would be great.  I have no idea how such a system would be implemented, and know it would probably only work for a decade or two before technological advance would crack it apart.  It’s only a matter of time before autonomous vehicles will drive around checking for potholes.  When a pothole is detected, another autonomous vehicle will show up, block off traffic, and fix it.  And these autonomous vehicles will be built in automated factories, which will be supplied from automated mines.  In this system, does someone need to own all these vehicles?  Would we still need to pay taxes to pay for this system?  And this won’t just be for roads.  There will be robots building solar power stations, houses, picking food, transporting it all, etc. 

Adam Smith, the father of capitalism, died in 1790.  Karl Marx, often seen as the socialist poster boy, died in 1883.  Even if you think their ideas were perfect – they weren’t – they were Eighteenth and Nineteenth Century ideas.  We live in the Twenty-first.  Shouldn’t there be a new economic system that takes automation and bitcoin into account?  It doesn’t even have to be completely new.  I’d say this new system should be about 40% Capital S Socialism, 30% Capital C Capitalism, and 30% something new.  What do you think?

Sunday, July 18, 2021

Moon landing sale!

I am a big supporter of returning to the moon; I think it’s our best way of becoming a spacefaring civilization.  And even though it happened before I was born, I love Apollo 11, even thinking that July 20th should be a holiday.  So to mark this year’s anniversary, I’m having a sale on four of my ebooks.  Two of them deal with the moon, but I’m including the other two as a bonus.  So between Sunday July 18th and Thursday July 22nd, you’ll be able to get the following four ebooks for free.

The Moon Before Mars

 


Over the last few years a lot of people have caught Mars fever. It seems a week doesn’t go by without a report of some new group wanting to send people to Mars, or some big name in the industry talking about why we have to go to Mars, or articles talking about the glorious future humanity will have on Mars. All of this worries me. In my opinion, a Mars base is currently not sustainable because there’s no way for it to make money. A few missions may fly doing extraordinary science, but if it’s then cancelled for cost the whole Mars Project may just be seen as an expensive stunt.

Fortunately, there are other places in the solar system besides Mars. While bases on the moon and amongst the asteroids won’t be as inspirational as one on Mars, they will have opportunities for businesses to make goods and services as well as profits, meaning less chance of them being outright cancelled. This will make life better on Earth and secure a firm foothold in space for humanity. The essays in The Moon Before Mars: Why returning to the moon makes more sense than rushing off to Mars allow me to describe my ideas on what can be accomplished on the moon and with the asteroids, and why Mars isn’t the destiny of humanity its cheerleaders make it out to be.

A Cabin Under a Cloudy Sea and other stories

 


Hopefully, in the not too distant future humans will return to the moon. We will build bases and colonies, make farms and factories, and live, love and learn. A Cabin Under a Cloudy Sea and other stories contains five short stories that are all set upon the moon. They give the tiniest glimpse of the possibilities awaiting us there.

Lonely Phoenix

 


Partway to a new colony world, board member Geoffrey Ames is woken from hibernation by the caretaking crew of the Lucian. They require him to look into the matter of their fellow crewman Morgan Heller. Morgan’s claims – such as being over 1500 years old – would normally land him in the psychiatric ward, except he can back up some of his other claims.

Brain for Rent and other stories

 


Brain for Rent and other stories is a collection of five of my short scifi stories to give a sampling of my writing. The collection includes: “Brain for Rent” about a ne’re-do-well failed writer with a conceptual implant who discusses his work with a young woman thinking of getting an implant herself. “The Demonstration” is about a different young woman wanting to show off her latest body modification. “Self Imprisonment” offers one solution of safe keeping the backup copy of yourself. “The Best Job Ever” is about a necessary – yet unpleasant – human/alien interaction. And the collection ends with “Why Stay?” which explains why, after years of fighting the humans, the robots just deactivate.