The Fall of SpaceX?

I’ve been a big supporter of space for as long as I can remember.  In 2009 I was thrilled when SpaceX became the first private company to put a satellite into orbit with a private rocket.  It seemed like we were on the verge of the real Space Age.  But in the last few years, it just seems like we’ve lost our way. 

After some thought, I figured out part of the problem.  If you went back twenty years to 2004 and found the 28-year-old me and told him, “There’s this company, SpaceX, I don’t know if you’ve heard anything of them yet, but in a few years they’ll build a small rocket that will be the first private rocket to put a satellite into orbit.  They’ll build a bigger rocket, which by 2024 will be a workhorse, launching over 100 times in 2024 alone.  Part of the reason for the high launch cadence is the first stage is reusable, as in it lands and can be reflown at least twenty some times.  And they have a capsule capable of putting humans into orbit, either as a taxi for NASA astronauts, or just private astronauts.  From all of that, what do you think they’re doing in 2024?”

2004 me would think for a bit, and then would probably answer, “Space stations.  Maybe just two or three module ones.  Some would be hotels, while others would be labs, either general or dedicated to biological research or materials testing.  And there might even be … garages that would send out robotic or crewed craft to bring back damaged satellites for repair.  I mean, that’s what I’d be doing.  What’s this SpaceX doing?”

“They’ve launched thousands upon thousands of satellites to give internet service to people.”

2004 me.  “That’s … cool, I guess.  Do they have any plans?”

“Oh, they’re working on an even larger rocket that will not only have a reuseable first stage, but a reuseable second stage.”

2004 me.  “Oh, will they use that to launch space stations, sort of a Skylab thing?”

“No, they’re mainly focused on starting a Mars Colony.”

2004 me, slightly confused.  “But, if you had a space station, you could test the life support systems needed for the months long voyage to Mars.  Not to mention, it would be a good idea to have plenty of private astronauts with some space experience to be the command crew on a colony ship.  Especially to do spacewalks in case something needs repaired.”

“No, I think the plan is to just fling them to Mars and hope for the best.”

2004 me, really confused.  “That’s … all they’re doing?”

“Well, they’re contracted with NASA for a lunar lander version to land crew on the moon, but who knows if anything will come of it.  Like, in the original timeline by 2024 they should have had an uncrewed test flight, which would involve putting the lander in orbit, and then launching like fifteen refueling missions to refuel it to fly to the moon.  But so far, they’ve had six test flights, and while they have recovered one first stage, none of the second stages – that are to be rapidly reuseable – have survived reentry in any shape to be reused.  But the owner recently said they’d fly a couple cargo missions to Mars in 2026, although you’d think such missions would also have rovers but I’ve not heard anything about them, even though they’d take a few years to build.”

2004 me.  “What?”

I think this is why 2024 me is starting to worry that SpaceX will … crash and burn.  A few years ago, I wrote a post about how if you were serious about building a Mars Colony, you’d probably want some orbiters to map out certain resources or look for hazards to plan where to put this colony, or to put a bunch of weather, or communications satellites around Mars, or maybe do some reentry tests to get some information before going all out.  But that would require money, and knowledge of building satellites, and rockets powerful enough to send them to Mars.  I mean, it’s not like Elon Musk and SpaceX have had all these things for years.

I fully support the scientific exploration of Mars, but I maintain that the challenges of a Mars Colony far exceed the benefits.  We can mine metals from the asteroids and build rotating colonies that we can fill with life from Earth without worrying about destroying any alien life on Mars.  We could even put rockets on these stations and send them outside the solar system.  If we go to Mars, we get a planet.  If we go to the asteroids, we get the galaxy.

It seems like SpaceX is passing up on what 2004 me would consider as the “next logical steps” to making humanity a spacefaring civilization, for an all or nothing Mars Colony that, almost certainly, will not happen as quickly or glamorously as Musk and his cheerleaders say it will.  It almost reminds me of some observations I heard about a year ago about this car company.  A decade ago, Tesla was The Electric Car Company.  But over the last decade or so, they haven’t done much.  Instead of expanding their market with more affordable cars, they seem to be just doing crazier and crazier publicity stunts.  And while they’re doing that, other car companies have started making their own electric cars, maybe not as exciting as Teslas, but actually available to the average car buyer.  A decade ago, Tesla was King, but no more.  Right now, SpaceX is King.  But by focusing on some grand vision, will their competitors be able to move into the “next logical steps?” A decade from now, will other rocket companies be taking us to the moon, while SpaceX is left doing stunts to stay in the news?

Small acts of resistance

As a white, fourthish generation, heterosexual cismale, I know that I’m not at the top of the list of people the magats will go after.  But I do live in a very red part of the state.  As an introvert who isn’t a fan of confrontation, I do my best to keep my thoughts, especially political ones, to myself.  I have coworkers and family who voted for that treasonous shit weasel who, since I never say anything, probably assume I did as well.  Some will say I should cut those people out of my life, but I’m not that strong.

Anyway, I was physically ill the day after the election and had basically given up.  The coming shitocalypse will probably be so great that nothing I did could stop it.  I felt like that for a day or so, but as the disgust faded, it was replaced with a cold fury.  I will not let the fucking fascists win.  While that would make for a nice bumper sticker – that I wouldn’t feel safe enough to put on my car – it didn’t change the fact I’m still an introvert who doesn’t deal well with people.  What could I do? 

My plan is to write stories.  A few months ago, I had decided that I would put aside other writing stuff and spend 2025 finishing a fantasy book that I’ve been working on, off and on, for a decade or so.  That was the plan.  The plan now, is to hopefully spend half the time on that, and the other half on other short stories.  These short stories would be one part showing a better world where people have the basic freedom to be different, and one part being good for morale for those of us fighting for such a world.  I mean, even in the darkest days of WWII, I’m sure there was some French Resistance member cracking jokes to make the other members laugh.

Now, in the grand scheme of things, an unknown writer writing stories few people will ever read doesn’t seem like much.  And I realized that most of us fighting on the side of light feel like we can never do enough.  Our small acts of resistance won’t save the world.  But we have to remember we are not alone.  There are millions of real patriots out there who truly want to make America better, and every small act of resistance, from helping someone in need to just living a good life, it all builds and adds up. 

So, what small acts of resistance are you doing?

What might happen in the next four years

Since we are apparently living in the dumbest timeline, I wondered what we might see happen in the next four years.  So here are some things I hope won’t happen.

First off, a couple weeks before the election I read somewhere someone predicted that shortly after Trump’s Inauguration, Vance would 25th Amendment him because he clearly has dementia.  But if we accept that they’re vile assholes who would do anything for power, I’d say it’s more likely Trump will be shot by an “immigrant” as an excuse to really go after them.  If he survives, they could spin it as the injuries are so great that he has to resign.  And then a week later there will be pictures of him golfing.

I expect Palestine will cease to exist, with Gaza and the West Bank being annexed by Israel.  This will likely start a big Mideast war, that the US will almost certainly trip into.  And with the US preoccupied there, it’s likely China will invade Taiwan, and North Korea will attack South Korea.  If we send aid to either is probably a coin flip.

Ukraine will end up having to let a big chunk of their territory be taken by Russia to end the war.  But if the US pulls out of NATO, there is a chance that there will be a new Common European Defense Organization, or something as the EU becomes the new leader of the Free World.

One not bad thing that might happen, is Puerto Rico might just declare independence.  If they did it right now, there might be issues, but when the economy tanks, and we end up in two or three wars, they could leave without many noticing. 

So those were my immediate thoughts.  I wish I could say none of them will happen, but ….

Good signs

I live in a rather red area of Pennsylvania.  I also watch a bunch of stuff on YouTube.  So I’ve seen a lot of political ads these last few months.  Now I didn’t keep track of what ads I saw, but it seems to me that even a couple of weeks ago, for every three Democrat ads I saw, there were four Republican ads.  But now it does seem that for every three Republican ads, there are four Democrat ones.  Did the Republicans run out of money, or have they realized they’re not winning Pennsylvania so they’re putting their money elsewhere, or am I completely wrong about all of this?  Who knows.  One thing that is interesting, is how most of the Republican ads are of the doom and gloom and “They support trans people,” kind, whereas the Democrat ones are the “Here’s what we’re going to do for America,” as well as, “Election Day is November fifth.  Please vote,” kind.

Moving away from ads, I’ve seen a couple houses with Republican yard signs, but not Trump signs.  So there are some people that are Republicans, but not Trump-Republicans, which is a low bar, but too few clear it.

On the roads I take to work, I see a dozen or so Trump signs.  But last week, as I was driving along, I saw something and went, “Is that a Harris sign?” Well, it was, but it had been vandalized into a slightly rude sign.  I was still a few minutes from work, and I wondered if that person had put up a Harris sign only for someone to vandalize it, or if they had stolen a sign to vandalize it and put it up as a “joke.” Not knowing who lived there, it’s hard to say.  But it’s unlikely they drove for hours to steal a sign, so there was probably someone in the area who put up a Harris sign.  And then, as I pulled in to work, I saw a Harris bumper sticker, which was the first actual Harris sign I’ve seen.  Again, I live in a very red part of the state, and I pretty much only go to and from work.

But, the other day I had to run an errand which took me on a road I hadn’t been on for over a month.  On that road I remembered seeing a dozen or so Trump signs.  They’re still there, but this time, I saw two houses with actual, unvandalized Harris signs.  There are brave blue dots in the sea of red. 

Election Day Sale

This election is almost over!  In a matter of days we’ll know if America will remain a land of democracy, or if it wall fall into fascism.  That’s assuming in the months after the election the fascists don’t burn the country down in their attempts to steal the election.  But that’s Big Challenge Number 2.  Big Challenge Number 1 is getting out and voting to show that the majority of Americans don’t want Orange Hitler back in the White House. 

Therefore, as with every election for the last decade plus, I’m having an Election Day Sale on several of my ebooks.  From Friday November 1st, through Election Day Tuesday November 5th, the following five ebooks will be free to download.  All I ask is that you vote.  If you need it, this site will help you find your polling place.  (Also, apparently, it’s technically illegal for me to give you something to get you to vote, but if a free ebook from an unknown author was the deciding factor on whether or not you voted, then the case could be made that anything could have been the deciding factor, like choosing not to vote because you didn’t want to stand in line after stubbing your toe that morning.  And it’s not like I’m dumb enough to just give people a million dollars.  Anyway, there’s no way for me to know if you vote or not, so you can take a book and not vote.  Which is fine, except in the sense that this election will determine the very fate of the United States.)

If you’ve already voted, then reward yourself with some free books.  If you haven’t voted yet, then grab something to read while you wait in line.  And if you’re not an American citizen, grab an ebook anyway and participate in your government however you can, because if nothing else, this election has shown that the forces of authoritarianism are everywhere, and they unfortunately don’t sleep.

***

 

Political Pies

Everybody complains about politics, but does anyone do anything about it? My attempt to do something about it is to collect forty of my short stories with a political element into my Political Pies anthology. The stories are either politically neutral or equally condemning of the national parties. Instead of trying to sway you to one ideology or another, my goal is to just get people thinking about politics in the hopes a rose might grow out of all the political manure.

 

The All-You-Can-Read Buffet

The All-You-Can-Read Buffet is a collection of forty stories covering various genres and themes ranging from six to over 4,200 words in length. Some of these stories I wrote a decade ago, while others were written especially for this collection. All together, they are a buffet of my writing. As such, I encourage you to read as much as you want. Go back for seconds, thirds, fourths even. I won’t even mind if you skip over the stuff you don’t like, but, to quote your mother, “How do you know you don’t like it? Have you tried it?”

 

Relics

This work contains some profanity and sexual situations. It is intended for mature audiences only.

A plague that kills men has devastated the world’s population. Only a few thousand boys and men were able to be quarantined. But Mike Shay is the only man known to have a natural immunity to the plague. Therefore, he is practically the only man in a world of women. He spends his days reading, playing video games, and making the occasional sperm donation. Then Dr. Veronica Barrett shows up, disrupting what passes for his life. She says she’s there to investigate his “mental wellbeing,” but is there more to her visit?

Instead of the normal, adolescent, heterosexual male fantasy of being the only guy on a planet of women, “Relics” tries to give a more realistic view of Mike’s life.

 

The Future is Coming

As a science fiction writer, I’ve spent a lot of time thinking about how technology will change the way we live. I’ve come up with these ten short essays about science fictional elements that will – almost certainly – one day become science fact as a way for people to start coming to terms with them. Because I’ve spent time thinking about clones and AIs, I feel I’ll be okay when they do finally show up whereas most people will probably freak out. I hope these essays will get people to start thinking about the future because, no matter what we do, the future is coming.

 

Lonely Phoenix

Partway to a new colony world, board member Geoffrey Ames is woken from hibernation by the caretaking crew of the Lucian. They require him to look into the matter of their fellow crewman Morgan Heller. Morgan’s claims – such as being over 1500 years old – would normally land him in the psychiatric ward, except he can back up some of his other claims.

Political Karens

The idea for this post has been kicking around for … I don’t know how many months.  It started when I saw a post about how some Democrats weren’t planning on voting for Biden because of how he’s handled the whole issue of Gaza.  On one hand, I fully understand the dream of only voting for politicians that fully support the same causes you do.  But on the other hand, I doubt Trump could even find Gaza on a map. 

I know some people get really put off being told they have to support the lesser evil, but where the fuck have they been living the past forty years?  Yes, the system is broken.  Yes, the only thing more antidemocratic than only having two choices is only having one.  And yes, Harris isn’t perfect.  But you know what, NOBODY IS FUCKING PERFECT!  If a politician agreed with me 100% on every one of the 8,000 issues we have in the country/world right now, I’d figure they were just lying to get my vote. 

If you took the 100 issues I care most about, and looked at, not what Harris promises to do but what she can probably actually deliver, maybe 10 of those issues will see marked improvement, 5 might actually get noticeably worse, and the other 85 will have little if any change.  Whereas with Trump, 95 will get noticeably worse, while the other 5 will have little if any change.  Will Harris bring about a new golden age of America and the world?  No.  But she will make things slightly better.  Trump will dose the country in gasoline and light a match.  The choice is between slightly better and utter destruction, and somehow people can’t decide? 

Even if every American agreed on what America should be, there’s no way to get there within a Presidential term.  And too many adult Americans don’t understand that.  They’re apparently still at the stage where if they want candy, but if their parent says no, they immediately start crying and screaming.  We can only try to make things better tomorrow than they are today, which means we are often just left with baby steps.  But they can be baby steps in the right direction.

This brings us to my concept of a Political Karen.  We all know the image of a hyper-Karen, someone who would demand the complete destruction of a pizza place as acceptable compensation for not putting enough green peppers on their pizza, even though they never mentioned extra green peppers when they ordered the pizza.  I hope most of us would not only not agree with that, but would see it as going too far.  Now a Political Karen, is someone who – watching the country be destroyed by a fascist Trump – would think that if only Harris had stated support for Policy Y, they might have voted for her, thus avoiding this whole situation.  And I would hope, that most people would see that as going too far as well.

Short story – “Spooky Story”

“Spooky Story”

Closing the front door, Karl called out, “We’re back.” He unhooked Buster’s leash and the Basset Hound plodded into the kitchen to get a drink of water.

Karl took his shoes off and walked into the living room.  His wife Susan was where he had left her: in her “office” corner staring at her laptop.  He walked up behind her and kissed the top of her head.  “What are you stuck on?”

Susan sighed.  “It’s spooky season, and we’re going into an important election, so I wanted to do my part and write a spooky election story.”

“What did you come up with?”

“I wrote, ‘President Trump,’ and I didn’t want to go on.”

Karl snorted.  He then pretended to scream.  “Agggh.  The horror.” Kissing her forehead he said, “That hack Stephen King has nothing on you.”

Susan smiled.  “It just feels like I need to do more.”

Rubbing her shoulder, Karl said, “Come on.  We all know we’ll have President Clinton 2.0.  I doubt he even wants to be President.  It would mean he’d have to work for once in his life.  And he can make so much more money giving speeches bitching about how terrible she is.  If we’re lucky, in a year or so he’ll fade into obscurity.”